Special Weather Discussion

Latest Weather Discussion by Kyle Elliott

* chilly start to meteorological spring, but "spring fever" may await *

1:30 p.m. Friday, February 27, 2026, Update:

February 28th marks the last day of Meteorological Winter, and Meteorological Spring then begins on March 1st. After a brutally cold and blustery winter, most of you probably cannot wait for warmer days. Fortunately, I have mostly good news in terms of milder weather over the next 7-10 days. There will be a few "speed bumps" along the way, but "Spring Fever" may be running rampant by the end of next week. As a warm-weather lover, I'll be here for it and cannot wait!

In the short term, we're actually being treated to a gorgeous last two days of February. An area of high pressure over the mid-Atlantic States will promote sunny and noticeably milder conditions this afternoon. For the last Friday in February, you really couldn't hope for nicer weather! Winds will be light for our TGIF, and high temperatures should top out in the low-to-mid 50s for most. The high pressure system will shift into the western Atlantic tomorrow, so even warmer weather lies ahead! On its backside, the combination of mostly sunny skies and a light, southwesterly breeze will boost high temperatures into the upper 50s to low 60s (see below). Not since December 19th has the mercury reached the 60-degree mark at Millersville University, but that may change in about 24 hours. Much like this morning, there may be pockets of patchy, dense fog along the Susquehanna River and in the deeper valleys of south-central and southeastern PA between 3-9 AM Saturday, but it should burn off by 10-11 AM. Get outside and enjoy the sunshine and above-average temperatures!

Despite the unseasonably mild end to February, March will kick off on a much chillier note. A cold front will sweep through the Commonwealth from northwest-to-southeast Saturday night into Sunday morning. However, most of the upper-level energy associated with it will track through southern New England, so only a brief rain or snow shower should accompany the frontal passage across northern MD and southeastern PA (see below). Behind the front, a northerly breeze of 10-20 mph will usher a colder air mass into the region, but high temperatures should still be near normal (low-to-mid 40s) with increasing amounts of sunshine throughout the day. I wouldn't say March is coming in like a lion, but it certainly won't come in like a lamb either. 

For much of this week, I was closely monitoring the potential for another snow event on Monday. Fast forward to this afternoon, and that threat has all but vanished. A sprawling high pressure system of Canadian origin is now expected to settle into New York State from Sunday night into Monday. Essentially, the system will be too close to the Lower Susquehanna Valley for any precipitation due to the large-scale subsidence, or sinking motion, beneath it. Instead, the dense, Arctic air mass will force the aforementioned cold front down the eastern slopes of the Appalachians and into South Carolina or Georgia by Monday morning. A disturbance will move eastward along the boundary on Monday, but that places its track over the Tennessee River Valley and south-central Appalachians (see below). Temperatures will bottom out in the high teens to low 20s Sunday night and struggle to exceed the freezing mark (32°F) on Monday under mostly cloudy skies, but at least there won't be any wintry precipitation to go along with the unseasonable cold.

The better chance for a "wintry mix" or "changeover" event comes late Monday night through Tuesday as the boundary returns northward as a warm front. Another wave of low pressure will ride eastward along the boundary during that time and likely bring a mix of snow, sleet or freezing rain to northern MD and southern PA for a few hours Tuesday morning. However, it certainly does not appear to be a big event and more-or-less of the "nuisance" or "minor" variety. By the afternoon hours, strong, southwesterly flow will cause precipitation to change over to plain rain and temperatures to rise above freezing, so any issues (slick/slushy spots) on roadways will be confined to the morning hours. Periods of light-to-moderate rain may then continue through Tuesday evening before tapering off later Tuesday night. Amounts are uncertain at this distance, but a "first guess" would be for a general 0.50-1.00" of beneficial rain. Thereafter, the boundary may indeed lift north of south-central PA during the second half of next week, but there is always the threat of it pushing back southward as a "backdoor cold front" on Thursday or Friday. If the boundary does indeed stall to our north, then southwesterly flow originating from the Gulf and Deep South could boost high temperatures into the 60s or 70s next Wednesday, Thursday and/or Friday. However, high temperatures could just easily be in the 40s or 50s if the boundary stalls to our south or regresses as a backdoor front. I'm certainly hoping for a burst of "Spring Fever" but also know better than to "bite" on a multi-day stretch of unseasonable warmth in early March.. especially after a winter in which long-range warmups have largely been "fantasy." Time will tell! -- Elliott 

3:00 p.m. Tuesday, February 24, 2026:

Well, the risk paid off! The Blizzard of 2026 did indeed track about 50 miles farther east than suggested by many numerical weather prediction models and spared northern MD and the Lower Susquehanna Valley from a major snowfall. Instead, most parts of the region received 3-6" of snow from the storm with slightly lower totals across Lebanon and western Berks Counties. 6-8" of snow fell in the South Mountain Range and in highly-localized municipalities impacted by a narrow "inverted trough" Sunday night, but this was still only a "light-to-moderate" event with minimal impacts. The same could not be said from Delaware and the Eastern Shore of Maryland through New Jersey and southeastern New York. These areas were pummeled by the "bomb cyclone" and received 1-2 feet of snow with locally higher amounts of 25-30". Factor in wind gusts of 40-50 mph and snow rates of 2-4" per hour at times, and the storm certainly qualified as an all-out blizzard closer to the coast. In fact, 30-40" of snow buried nearly all of Rhode Island and much of southeastern Massachusetts, and the 37.9" of snow that fell in Providence, RI, smashed the all-time, single-storm record snowfall of 28.6" during the Blizzard of 1978. Philadelphia picked up about 14" of snow from the storm, and nearly 20" of snow accumulated in Central Park. Despite the relative "miss" in areas west of Philadelphia, this blizzard will be remembered for a long time and has cemented itself in the record books (see below). Phew!

Behind the storm, northwesterly winds of 15-30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph accompanied mostly cloudy and chilly conditions on Monday with highs in the mid-to-upper 30s. Fortunately, we didn't have to deal with any blowing/drifting snow due to the above-freezing temperatures and snow's heavy/wet composition. Winds gradually subsided later Monday night into this morning, but a northwesterly breeze of 10-20 mph persists at the time of this writing. An area of high pressure over the southeastern United States is promoting partly-to-mostly sunny and cold conditions this afternoon. Temperatures have reached the low-to-mid 30s in most spots, but wind chills are stuck in the low-to-mid 20s on account of the wind. That's about 15°F below average by late-February standards, so a winter coat and gloves remain a necessity for outdoor activities. A clipper-type system will zip through southeastern Canada from tonight through Wednesday. However, most of its energy and, therefore, the snow associated with it will stay north of south-central PA, but a coating to perhaps 1" of accumulation cannot be ruled out north of the Turnpike and east of the Susquehanna River between 1-8 AM Wednesday (see below). In these areas, motorists may encounter some slick/slushy spots on untreated and secondary roads during the Wednesday morning commute, but temperatures will rise above freezing quickly after sunrise. Thus, any slush on roadways will be history by 9-10 AM. In the wake of the snow showers, skies should clear during the mid-to-late morning hours, and southwesterly winds of 12-25 mph will usher noticeably milder air into the region Wednesday afternoon (see below). In fact, high temperatures may peak in the low-to-mid 50s.. some 5-10°F ABOVE average.. across northern MD and the western half of the Lower Susquehanna Valley. Needless to say, it'll be a welcome change from the blustery and cold conditions early this week. Oh, and say good riddance to the snowpack. Hoorah!

A cold front trailing southward from the clipper system will sweep through the Commonwealth from northwest-to-southeast Wednesday night, but no more than a brief sprinkle or light rain shower will accompany its passage. In its wake, another cooler air mass will settle into the mid-Atlantic States on Thursday, and high temperatures should be back down around average (low-to-mid 40s). Additionally, another disturbance zipping from the Tennessee River Valley to the southern Virginia or North Carolina coastline may graze the southern-tier counties of PA with a few rain showers. However, precipitation could just as easily remain south of the Mason-Dixon Line and perhaps even I-70. Once again, numerical computer models have been horribly inconsistent with the disturbance's track and flip-flopping all over the place from run-to-run. With that being said, the overall trend has been for a weaker and more suppressed disturbance. Thus, no more than a few hundredths of an inch of rain will fall across northern MD and southern PA on Thursday, and the day may ultimately end up dry. Time will tell..

Looking ahead to Friday and Saturday, I have nothing but good news to offer! In the wake of Thursday's disturbance, an area of high pressure will settle into the Northeast and promote partly sunny skies, light winds and seasonable conditions on Friday with highs in the mid-to-upper 40s. The weekend will then kick off on a mostly sunny, even milder and downright gorgeous note with highs in the mid-to-upper 50s Saturday afternoon. For the third Saturday in a row, the weather will be ideal for outdoor activities.. and you may not even need a jacket or sweatshirt this go around. Don't get used to it though. On Saturday night, a cold front will sag southward through the Commonwealth and drop below the Mason-Dixon Line by daybreak Sunday. At this point, I don't expect more than a brief rain or snow shower to accompany the frontal passage. However, northerly winds of 10-20 mph behind it will direct another cold, Canadian air mass into the mid-Atlantic States, and high temperatures may struggle to reach or exceed 40°F Sunday afternoon under partly-to-mostly cloudy skies. Thereafter, the forecast becomes rife with uncertainty early next week, but I am carefully monitoring the potential for more wintry precipitation on Monday and/or Tuesday. It won't be a "big storm," but we may certainly have to deal with some kind of snow- or mixed-precipitation event during the first few days of March. Meteorological Spring arrives on Sunday, March 1st, but it won't feel like it for at least the first 3-5 days of the month. March won't be coming in like a lamb this year.. but hey, that means it will go out like one, right? 🤷‍♂️ -- Elliott