Special Weather Discussion

Latest Weather Discussion by Kyle Elliott

* light snow friday; another arctic blast to follow this weekend *

3:30 p.m. Tuesday, February 3, 2026:

Due primarily to the Arctic outbreak during the last week of the month, aggregate temperatures in January 2026 were nearly 3°F below normal at Millersville University. It was the first statistically significant "below average" winter month (DJF) since January 2018 and the coldest January since 2015 (see below). Last Friday, the January 30th record low maximum, or "coldest high," temperature of 18°F from 1966 was tied at the 'Ville (see below). However, no new record lows or record low maximum temperatures were set over the last 9 days of the month. Only two record low maxes were tied (January 24th and 30th). About 2" of liquid equivalent precipitation (LEP) was recorded at the 'Ville in January, but a good chunk of that precipitation fell in the form of snow/sleet. In fact, the 13.6" of snow made January 2026 the snowiest one in 10 years and was about 5" above normal for the month (see below).

Fortunately, last week's Arctic air mass has finally relinquished its grip on the region early this week. The lobe of the Tropospheric Polar Vortex (TPV) that rotated through northern New England and the Canadian Maritimes over the weekend has lifted into the North Atlantic. In its wake, more zonal, west-to-northwesterly flow has at least directed somewhat more seasonable air back into the Lower Susquehanna Valley. High temperatures reached the low 30s on Groundhog Day across most of the region, and they're in the low-to-mid 30s north of the Mason-Dixon Line and mid-to-upper 30s to its south this afternoon despite mostly cloudy skies. A trough, or dip in the Jet Stream, will remain in place across the eastern United States through the end of the week, but it won't be nearly as extreme or pronounced as last week. Thus, aggregate temperatures from Wednesday-Friday should only be around 10°F below average instead of last week's 15-25°F below normal. This equates to highs around 30°F and lows around 10°F.. certainly cold, but not dangerously so like last week. In addition, winds should be relatively light and on the order of 7-14 mph through Friday, so wind chills will only bottom out in the mid-to-high single digits during the late-night and early-morning hours and hover in the high teens to low 20s each afternoon. Moreover, skies will be mostly sunny both Wednesday and Thursday, so that should help mitigate the chill to some degree. Beforehand, a weak disturbance will zip through the Delmarva region tonight, but accumulating snow (0.5" or less) should be confined to areas south of Interstate 70 with no more than a few flurries across northern MD and southern PA (see below). Due to the clouds and flurries, temperatures should only bottom out in the mid teens to low 20s from northwest-to-southeast across the region tonight.

The only chance for accumulating snow in the Lower Susquehanna Valley through the upcoming weekend will come on Friday. A clipper-type system will zip from the northern Great Lakes region and southeastern Canada into New England spanning Thursday night to Saturday morning. Most precipitation associated with clipper systems occurs in a narrow swath ahead of and to the north/east of their tracks. Thus, I only anticipate scattered snow showers or intermittent, light snow across the region on Friday.. mainly during the afternoon and early-evening hours (see below). The system will be starved for moisture and unable to tap into the now-frozen waters of Lake Erie. Additionally, pre-treated and primary roads will likely just be wet during the Friday afternoon commute with high temperatures near 30°F. There may be a few slick/slushy spots on secondary roads, but impacts to travel should be minimal. At this point, I expect no more than a coating-2" of accumulation.. with most areas being closer to the coating than the 2". If there ever was a "nuisance" event, Friday's clipper will be it!

Unfortunately, another lobe of the TPV will break off over Hudson Bay late this week and then get shunted southward by strong, north-to-northwesterly flow on the eastern periphery of a massive ridge, or northward bulge in the Jet Stream, over western North America. Pronounced, high-latitude blocking over Greenland will also force the TPV lobe southward into the northeastern United States this weekend. In fact, the coldest air, relative to average, across the entire Northern Hemisphere will likely be smack dab over the mid-Atlantic States on Saturday with temperature departures of 25-30°F below normal (see below)!

Behind Friday night's Arctic cold frontal passage, northwesterly winds of 20-40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph will buffet the Lower Susquehanna Valley on Saturday (see below). Not only will wind gusts of this magnitude be locally damaging and bring down trees and powerlines, but they could cause minimum wind chill values to be as low as 20°F below zero at times from Saturday into Sunday morning. Actual air temperatures will probably hover in the teens on Saturday, bottom out near zero Saturday night, and then struggle to reach the 20-degree mark on Sunday. Winds will gradually slacken later Saturday night into Sunday, but gusts may still reach 40 mph during the second half of the weekend. Not until Monday will winds fully subside as a Canadian high pressure system settles into region. In terms of wind chills, this weekend will undoubtedly be the coldest of the 2025-2026 winter season and perhaps the entire 2020s decade so far. Honestly, I advise just hunkering down inside from late Friday night into Monday morning and enjoying Super Bowl LX (60) Sunday evening. Exposed skin could develop frostbite in just 10-15 minutes this weekend, and roadways may be littered with debris from the damaging winds. Uninsulated and unprotected pipes may freeze or burst, and widespread power outages are also a "good bet." Stock up on extra water, food, blankets, coats, flashlights and other supplies over the next few days, and make sure you have a backup generator. In the event of a power outage, the internal temperature of your house could drop to unsafe levels in just 12-24 hours. Fill your vehicle's gas tank, as well, to prevent fuel lines from freezing. 

Looking ahead into early next week, unseasonably cold conditions will persist on Monday, but wind chills should at least get out of "dangerous" territory due to the much lighter winds. I currently expect high temperatures to climb back into the low-to-mid 20s Monday with wind chills in the teens following a frigid Sunday night with lows in the single digits above zero and wind chills perhaps as low as -10°F. Thereafter and at long last, a large-scale pattern reconfiguration.. featuring a southward dip in the Jet Stream over western North America and northward bulge over eastern North America.. should get underway during the middle of the week and lead to milder and more seasonably conditions during the middle of the month. Exact details as to how mild it may get are nebulous at this distance, but temperatures should at least be back around average, at a minimum, starting next Tuesday or Wednesday. Hang in there, warm-weather fans.. meteorological spring is less than 4 weeks away! -- Elliott