Special Weather Discussion

Latest Weather Discussion by Kyle Elliott

* milder this weekend, then "spring fever" arrives early next week *

11:45 a.m. Friday, March 6, 2026, Update:

As anticipated, this week has been nothing short of damp, dreary, gloomy, rainy and depressing across northern MD, southeastern PA and the Lower Susquehanna Valley. A quasi-stationary warm front has been draped over the region since Tuesday, and the boundary served as the focal point for multiple rounds of showers and batches of steadier, soaking rain. Due to the clouds and wet weather, high temperatures were stuck in the 30s on Tuesday and only reached the 40s on Wednesday and low 50s Thursday. Despite the bleak and raw conditions, the rain was much needed and highly beneficial due to the moderate-to-severe drought in place across the region. Since early Tuesday morning, about 1" of rain has been recorded at Millersville University with a general 0.75-1.50" of accumulation across most of south-central PA (see below). The bulk of that rain fell during last evening's onslaught of heavier downpours and embedded thunderstorms. 

The aforementioned warm front is now dammed up against the eastern slopes of the Appalachians as a "backdoor" cold front, and it won't budge until at least Saturday afternoon. To its north and east, raw, easterly flow off the Atlantic will continue to plague the Lower Susquehanna Valley with cloudy, damp and drizzly conditions this afternoon (see below). Temperatures will remain nearly steady in the low 40s across eastern areas to upper 40s/low 50s in Franklin County. Winds will turn south-southeasterly later tonight into Saturday, but that means they'll still have a slight component off the still-chilly waters of the Atlantic. Thus, low clouds will hang tough through most of the day, and high temperatures should range from the upper 40s to low 60s from east-to-west across the region (see below). In addition, areas of fog may develop again tonight and reduce visibility to between 1/4-1/2 of a mile in spots between 2-9 AM Saturday morning. The weather will certainly be better than today but still not great for outdoor activities.

A "traditional" cold front will then traverse the Commonwealth from northwest-to-southeast Saturday night and bring scattered showers to northern MD, southeastern PA and the Lower Susquehanna Valley. A few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out north/west of Route 11 and I-81, but any severe weather will remain to our west due to the lingering effects of the backdoor front and poor timing of the frontal passage (~2-9 AM Sunday). Rainfall amounts will remain below 0.25" in most spots, and showers should push south/east of the I-95 corridor by 8-9 AM Sunday (see below). Other than wet roadways, motorists will face no weather-related concerns in their travels to-and-from Sunday morning church services. 

Behind the front, westerly winds of 10-20 mph will usher drier air into the region on Sunday, cause clouds to gradually decrease throughout the day, and boost high temperatures into the mid 60s to perhaps 70°F (see below). At long last, you'll be able to feel comfortable enjoying the great outdoors without having to wear a jacket or sweatshirt. I can't wait!

Looking ahead into early next week, "Spring Fever" is going to run rampant from Monday through at least Wednesday. Strong, west-to-southwesterly flow will blast mild, Pacific air into the Central and Eastern States and combine forces with a sprawling high pressure system over the western Atlantic (deemed the "Bermuda High" by meteorologists). As a result, high temperatures should soar into the upper 60s to low 70s on Monday under mostly sunny skies, and they could then peak in the mid-to-upper 70s Tuesday and/or Wednesday. A few "warm thermometers" might even hit the 80-degree mark.. given enough sunshine.. at some point during the middle of next week. Needless to say, high temperatures of that magnitude are some 20-30°F above average by early-to-mid-March standards, and overnight lows may even be above the average high on one or two nights. A cold front will likely put an end to the unseasonable warmth and bring the next round of showers to the region Wednesday night into Thursday, but heat misers will finally get a break from Old Man Winter's brutal grasp. As one myself, I say "bring it on!" I'll be away on a much-needed vacation enjoying sunny Ft. Lauderdale, FL, from March 10-15, so my next Special Weather Discussion will be written the week of March 16th. Check back Monday for short- and medium-range videos covering the weather while I'm away.. -- Elliott

1:30 p.m. Tuesday, March 3, 2026:

Due primarily to a frigid start, aggregate temperatures in February ended up around 1.5°F below average at Millersville University. That being said, the mercury exceeded 60°F for the first time since November 16th on the final day of Meteorological Winter (February 28). For the fourth month in a row, liquid equivalent precipitation (LEP) was slightly below normal (see below). The 3.8" of snow that fell was well below the monthly average of 8.8".

Meteorological Spring began on Sunday, March 1, but kicked off on a chillier note. Despite plenty of sunshine during the afternoon hours, high temperatures only reached the low-to-mid 40s following Saturday night's cold frontal passage. I wouldn't say March came in like a lion, but it didn't come in like a lamb either. A weak disturbance moving eastward through the southern mid-Atlantic States grazed northern MD with a coating to 1" of snow Monday afternoon, but residents of the Lower Susquehanna Valley were spared from wintry precipitation. However, a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain overspread the region late Monday night in advance of a warm frontal boundary. Fortunately, there weren't too many winter weather-related issues on area roadways thanks to marginal temperatures and the high March sun angle, but several accidents were still reported across south-central PA this morning. Freezing rain changed over to plain rain areawide during the late-morning hours as temperatures rose above freezing, and periods of intermittent, light rain and drizzle will continue through the evening hours. Temperatures will continue to slowly climb into the mid-to-upper 30s over the next several hours and then remain nearly steady tonight. The warm front will become quasi-stationary from Wednesday through Friday, and several disturbances riding eastward along it will bring more periods of rain and drizzle to the region through Thursday night (see below). After a brief lull in the wet weather late tonight through Wednesday morning, showers or intermittent, light rain will return later Wednesday afternoon and continue into Thursday.

A stronger and more potent disturbance is expected to zip through the Commonwealth and/or New York State on Thursday night and be accompanied by a batch of steadier rain. The rain should exit southeastern PA prior to sunrise on Friday, but low clouds and drizzle will continue to plague areas east of the Appalachians throughout the day due to light, easterly flow off the Atlantic. Most areas will receive 0.75-1.50" of rain through Thursday night. Due to the ongoing drought, the rain will be largely beneficial, but you'll certainly need to grab an umbrella and rain gear before heading out the door each morning. Allow extra time to get to and from work or school; expect areas of slow travel on the roads; and be alert for standing water in low-lying, urban- and poor-drainage areas. Drive within the speed limit and increase following distance to minimize the risk of hydroplaning or an accident. With the frontal boundary over or in close proximity to the Mason-Dixon Line, skies will stay mostly cloudy through week's end. However, temperatures will be noticeably higher than this afternoon and likely peak in the upper 40s to low 50s Wednesday afternoon and low-to-mid 50s both Thursday and Friday.

The "backdoor cold front" slated to become dammed up against the eastern slopes of the Appalachians from Thursday night through Friday night may finally lift back northeastward as a warm front on Saturday. However, I know better than to "bite" on a quick erosion of low-level, easterly flow in early March.. especially after a brutally cold winter. Perhaps low clouds will give way to partial sunshine Saturday afternoon, but it may take a traditional cold frontal passage Saturday night to ultimately disrupt and reverse the easterly flow (see below). If so, then Saturday could turn out to be yet another cloudy, damp and dreary day with highs in the 50s prior to the arrival of partly sunny and much warmer conditions Sunday with highs in the mid 60s to perhaps 70°F. In the off chance clouds do break for sunshine Saturday afternoon, then high temperatures could reach the upper 60s to low 70s.. but I certainly wouldn't count on that at this point. Another round of scattered showers will likely accompany the cold frontal passage Saturday night, but Sunday itself should end up dry and pleasant.

Looking ahead into early next week, "Spring Fever" is going to run rampant from Monday through at least Wednesday. Strong, west-to-southwesterly flow will blast mild, Pacific air into the Central and Eastern States and combine forces with a sprawling high pressure system over the western Atlantic (deemed the "Bermuda High" by meteorologists). As a result, high temperatures should be back in the mid 60s to perhaps 70°F again on Monday under mostly sunny skies, and they could then soar well into the 70s next Tuesday and/or Wednesday. A few "warm thermometers" might even hit the 80-degree mark.. given enough sunshine.. at some point during the middle of the week. Needless to say, high temperatures of that magnitude are some 20-30°F above average by early-to-mid-March standards, and overnight lows may even be above the average high on one or two nights. The unseasonable warmth probably won't last through Friday, but heat misers will finally get a break from Old Man Winter's brutal grasp. As one myself, I say "bring it on!" -- Elliott