Special Weather Discussion

Latest Weather Discussion by Kyle Elliott

* some beneficial rain on easter Sunday, then cooler next week *

11:45 a.m. Friday, April 3, 2026, Update:

After an unseasonably warm start to April with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s Wednesday afternoon, a "backdoor" cold front sagged southward through the Commonwealth Wednesday night. Behind it, easterly flow off the Atlantic ushered much chillier air into northern MD, eastern PA and the Lower Susquehanna Valley on Thursday. In stark contrast to Wednesday, temperatures hovered in the upper 40s to low 50s across the region Thursday afternoon, and a raw, easterly breeze of 8-16 mph made the outdoor air feel even chillier. Areas of mist and drizzle added to the misery, and the front is still dammed up against the eastern slopes of the Appalachians at the time of this writing. As a result, cloudy, damp, dreary and cool conditions have lingered across the region this morning, and there is still an ~30°F difference in temperatures across the state (40s in the Lehigh Valley to 70s in southwestern PA) shortly before midday. Fortunately, winds will turn southerly early this afternoon and scour out the low clouds from southwest-to-northeast across the region. Essentially, the "backdoor" cold front will lift northeastward as a warm front, and high temperatures should still reach the 60s in southeastern PA to perhaps 80°F west of the South Mountain Range late in the day (see below). We're basically getting a taste of several seasons in a single day on this Good Friday..

After a partly cloudy and mild Friday night with lows in the mid-to-upper 50s, Easter Weekend will kick off on a partly-to-mostly sunny and unseasonably warm note. The combination of a 10-20 mph southerly breeze, sunshine and abnormally high temperatures in the mid-levels of the atmosphere will boost surface temperatures into the upper 70s to perhaps mid 80s in spots Saturday afternoon. In fact, the April 4th record high temperature of 83°F from 1921 at Millersville University may still be tied. The "backdoor" cold front may try to press back southwestward later Saturday afternoon and evening, and it could be the triggering mechanism for isolated showers and thunderstorms. As a result, the odds of the 105-year-old record high being broken have decreased compared to a few days ago, but it's certainly still possible. Regardless, the weather should be ideal for outdoor activities in shorts and t-shirts until later in the afternoon. Keep an eye on the sky and move indoors if lightning is seen or thunder heard. 

The southwestward progression of the "backdoor" front will have big implications on low temperatures Saturday night. If the front slides back through the Lower Susquehanna Valley, then temperatures could plummet into the upper 40s for several hours. If the front stops north/east of the region, then overnight lows will be in the balmy 60s. At this point, I suspect areas east of Route 11/I-83 end up much chillier than areas farther west Saturday night. No matter the exact outcome, a "traditional" cold front will traverse the mid-Atlantic States from west-to-east on Easter Sunday and be accompanied by periods of generally light rain. Sunday morning from ~4-11 AM will likely be the wettest time period across south-central PA, but 9 AM to 1 PM should be the most unsettled period along the I-95 corridor and in southeastern PA/northeastern MD. You'll definitely need to grab an umbrella and rain gear before heading out the door to Sunday morning church services but can leave them behind for evening services. Temperatures should peak around 70°F Sunday morning prior to the frontal passage and then drop into the 50s/60s behind it Sunday afternoon. Clouds should give way to at least some sunshine by the mid-to-late afternoon hours as winds turn west-northwesterly and usher much drier air into the region. Most areas will receive 0.25-0.50" of beneficial rain through Sunday with locally higher amounts up to 0.75" (see below). Be alert for areas of reduced visibility and standing water on some roadways to-and-from Sunday morning services, and increase following distance to reduce the risk of hydroplaning or an accident. 

Looking ahead into early next week, a much cooler air mass will settle into the mid-Atlantic States. A large-scale pattern reconfiguration.. featuring a northward bulge in the Jet Stream over western North America and trough over eastern North America.. will support a return of slightly-below normal temperatures from Monday-Wednesday. Despite mostly sunny skies, high temperatures will likely be a few degrees below normal on Monday (mid-to-upper 50s), about 10°F below average Tuesday (near 50°F), and then back within a few degrees of average on Wednesday (mid 50s). A clipper-type disturbance is expected to zip through southern New England and northern PA from Monday night into Tuesday morning, but no more than a brief rain shower or two should reach the Lower Susquehanna Valley. I won't rule out a sleet pellet or wet snowflake in spots, but most of you wouldn't be awake to see it anyways. Behind the disturbance, Tuesday will turn out partly-to-mostly cloudy and blustery with northwesterly wind gusts up to 40 mph. Thus, it will feel even colder outside with wind chills in the 30s/40s throughout the day. I hope you didn't put your heavy jackets and winter coats away just yet! They'll certainly come in handy for a couple days next week..

A Canadian high pressure system will settle into the Commonwealth from Tuesday night into Wednesday and promote lighter winds and clear skies. The stage will be set for efficient, radiational cooling Tuesday night, and temperatures could bottom out in the mid 20s (outlying areas) to low 30s (urban centers) early Wednesday morning. The near- to sub-freezing temperatures may kill sensitive, early-blooming flowers and vegetation, so apply a protective covering over anything you don't want damaged Tuesday night. The area of high pressure will then shift into the western Atlantic late next week, and southerly flow on its backside will usher more seasonable air into the region on Thursday. Under mostly sunny skies, temperatures should peak in the 60s Thursday afternoon following early-morning lows in the upper 30s. The warming trend will then likely continue through next weekend, and highs could be back near 80°F as early as Saturday or Sunday. The wild temperature rollercoaster ride rolls on, but that's often the norm in April in this part of the nation.. -- Elliott

1:45 p.m. Tuesday, March 31, 2026:

What a March it has been in terms of wild temperature swings! From a high of freezing (32°F) on March 2nd to 83°F on March 10th, back to 39°F on St. Patrick's Day and then 80°F again on the 22nd and 26th, this month has had it all! The crazy temperature rollercoaster ride will continue through the first half of April, and it's certainly on a steep incline or nearing the top of another big hill today. Following an unseasonably cold start to the last weekend in March, south-to-southwesterly flow returned on Sunday and has since strengthened early this week. In fact, high temperatures reached the upper 60s to low 70s in most spots Monday afternoon, and they'll peak in the upper 70s to low 80s.. some 20-25°F above average.. this afternoon under partly sunny skies (see below). Not since 1998 have there been at least three 80-degree days in March at Millersville University, but that will end this afternoon. The March 31st record high minimum, or "warmest low," temperature of 59°F from last year was also broken this morning with a low of 61°F at the 'Ville, and last year's highest mean temp of 70°F will also be beaten. 

After a partly cloudy and incredibly warm Tuesday night with lows in the low-to-mid 60s, similar conditions are expected on Wednesday in advance of a cold front. West-to-southwesterly winds will still be present across the southern-tier counties of PA until the late-afternoon or early-evening hours, and the combination of partial sunshine and compressional warming ahead of the front will support high temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s once again. It's no April Fool's Joke to say tomorrow will feel more like June 1st than April 1st. Unfortunately, dry conditions won't prevail through the entire day. The cold front will be the focal point for shower and thunderstorm development across the Lower Susquehanna Valley during the mid-to-late afternoon hours. Storms will become more numerous and widespread during the afternoon/evening commute and gradually sag to the south/east through the mid-to-late evening hours. Despite the unseasonably warm conditions in place, the air mass ahead of the front won't be particularly moist. Additionally, winds in the low- and mid-levels of the atmosphere will be relatively light, so I don't anticipate much.. if any.. severe weather tomorrow. The most intense storms may produce brief downpours, lightning, and wind gusts up to 50 mph, but tree- and powerline damage should be sparse, at worst. That being said, motorists should stay alert for areas of reduced visibility and minor debris/blowing objects on roadways during the PM commute. Oh, and keep an umbrella handy if you have outdoors plans after 2-3 PM. 

Behind the front, winds will turn easterly Wednesday night and filter much cooler air from New England into eastern PA. The cool air will "dam up" against the eastern slopes of the Appalachians later Wednesday night through early Friday morning, and temperatures will remain nearly steady in the mid-to-upper 50s under cloudy skies on Thursday. I don't expect any additional precipitation with the exception of some spotty mist/drizzle, but it's going to feel MUCH chillier outside in comparison to today and tomorrow. However, the cool air mass will exit almost as quickly as it entered. The aforementioned cold front will ultimately lift back northeastward as a warm front later Thursday night through Friday morning. As a result, winds should turn south-to-southwesterly again by late Friday morning, and the low clouds will be scoured out by the southwesterly flow. After the clouds break, temperatures will be "off to the races" again Friday afternoon and end up in the mid 70s to perhaps low 80s south of the Turnpike and west of I-83.

Easter Weekend will then begin on a potentially record-warm start with highs in the low-to-mid 80s on Saturday under partly-to-mostly sunny skies. I won't rule out an isolated shower later Friday into Saturday morning, but most areas should remain dry from Thursday morning through at least Saturday night. The 105-year-old April 4th record high temperature of 83°F from 1921 at Millersville will likely be tied or broken Saturday afternoon. April 4th is also the opening day of trout season in Pennsylvania, and thousands of anglers will be flocking to the state's waterways for the "opening bell" at 8 AM. Due to the multi-day stretch of unseasonable warmth leading up to opening day, water temperatures will be significantly higher than normal and generally in the 50s and 60s. In smaller streams and creeks, water clarity should be good given 48-60 hours of dry weather prior to 8 AM Saturday. However, cloudy or muddy water may be more common in larger creeks and rivers, especially those in northern/western parts of the state hit hardest by heavier rain and thunderstorms over the next 36 hours. Given the unusually warm water, trout should be very active and hit anything from live bait to spinners, minnows and dry/wet flies. Essentially, the world will be an angler's oyster on Saturday, and water temperatures will be high enough for some of you.. including myself.. to "wet wade" without protective gear. 

Looking ahead into Easter Sunday and early next week, a potent cold front is expected to traverse the Commonwealth from west-to-east later Sunday into Sunday night. It will be accompanied by another round of showers and embedded thunderstorms on Easter Sunday, so make sure you have an umbrella and rain gear handy for both morning and evening church services. Much like tonight, low temperatures Saturday night will probably be in the low-to-mid 60s, but high temperatures shouldn't exceed the low-to-mid 70s on Sunday due to the arrival of wet weather by the late-morning or early-afternoon hours. Of course, details with respect to the front's timing can and likely will change over the next few days, so check back Friday for an update! Regardless of the exact outcome and distribution of rainfall amounts, a much cooler air mass will settle into the mid-Atlantic States next week. A large-scale pattern reconfiguration.. featuring a northward bulge in the Jet Stream over western North America and trough over eastern North America.. will support a return of seasonably cool conditions for most of next week. Despite mostly sunny skies, high temperatures will likely be around 5°F below normal on Monday, near-average on Tuesday and then back below normal on Wednesday and/or Thursday. A clipper type system may bring rain showers to the Lower Susquehanna Valley during the middle of the week, and a brief, reinforcing shot of chilly air will likely follow in its wake. I'll worry about those details on Friday and re-evaluate things after Easter Sunday, but you'll certainly be trading in the shorts and t-shirts for long pants, jackets and sweatshirts next week. 'Tis the norm in April across this part of the nation.. -- Elliott