Special Weather Discussion

Latest Weather Discussion by Kyle Elliott

* wild temperature swings to continue through Early april *

12:30 p.m. Friday, March 27, 2026, Update:

As expected, the weather from yesterday afternoon through today has turned out to be a virtual repeat of this past Sunday-Monday. A cold front moved through the Lower Susquehanna Valley from northwest-to-southeast during the wee hours of the morning and was accompanied by periods of rain and embedded thunderstorms north of I-76 and west of I-81. Much like Sunday night, rainfall amounts increased from southeast-to-northwest across the region. While a measly 0.10-0.25" of rain fell in most of the I-95 corridor, much of central PA received a general 0.50-1.00" of rain with locally higher amounts in the I-99 corridor. Officially 0.41" of rain was recorded at Millersville University (see below). Due to the moderate-to-severe drought still in place across the region, the rain was largely beneficial. Rain pushed south/east of the I-95 corridor during the mid-to-late morning hours, and north-northwesterly winds of 10-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph will usher colder air into the mid-Atlantic States this afternoon. Similar to Monday, temperatures will continue to slowly fall this afternoon and ultimately end up in the upper 30s to mid 40s by sunset (see below). No additional rain is expected, but you'll certainly need to wear a heavy jacket or winter coat with wind chills in the 30s. Following highs in the upper 70s on Thursday, this taste of late-March reality feels like a slap in the face to warm-weather lovers like myself. Fortunately, the chilly air mass won't have much staying power. As has been the case for the last 4 weeks, unseasonably warm conditions will make a quick return, and high temperatures may be back in the upper 70s to low 80s on the final day of the month. In fact, the wild temperature rollercoaster ride will keep on going through at least Easter Weekend, so don't put away the heavier clothing and winter attire just yet!

A Canadian high pressure system will settle into the Ohio Valley from tonight into Saturday. To its east, northwesterly winds of 12-25 mph will continue to usher unseasonably cold air into northern MD and southeastern PA. Despite mostly sunny skies, high temperatures will be around 10-15°F below average, or in the mid-to-upper 40s, Saturday afternoon. Skies will clear this evening, and temperatures should bottom out in the upper 20s to low 30s later tonight. Thus, wind chills will only be in the 20s Saturday morning and 30s during the afternoon hours. With the high pressure over or just south of the Commonwealth, Saturday night will also be a cold one due to efficient, radiational cooling under mainly clear skies. Some sensitive flowers like dogwoods and magnolias may be damaged by the near- to slightly-below freezing temperatures early Sunday morning, and you'll certainly need to wear a heavy jacket or winter coat before heading out the door to church services. However, southerly winds of 12-25 mph will return on the backside of the high pressure system Sunday afternoon and usher milder and more seasonable air into the region (see below). Following the cold start to the day, high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 50s under partly sunny skies. That being said, the stiff, southerly breeze will make the outdoor air feel considerably cooler. Needless to say, this weekend will certainly not be nearly as nice for outdoor activities as the last one. 

Looking ahead into early next week, this month's wild temperature rollercoaster ride will end on a steep incline. Broad, southwesterly flow will strengthen from Monday through Wednesday and usher progressively warmer air into the Lower Susquehanna Valley. After a partly cloudy and relatively mild Sunday night with lows around 40°F, high temperatures should easily reach the mid 60s again on Monday. A more well-defined warm front will then move through the Commonwealth from southwest-to-northeast Monday night and be accompanied by a few showers. Behind it, temperatures will likely be "off to the races" on Tuesday and Wednesday and soar back into the upper 70s to perhaps mid 80s. Record high temperatures on the last day of March and first day of April are generally in the low-to-mid 80s, so they may be challenged during the middle of next week with enough sunshine. Overnight lows will also be ridiculously high for this time of the year (50s/60s) and more typical of June. Temperature departures on Tuesday/Wednesday will be 20-25°F above normal, but the next cold front should sweep through the mid-Atlantic States from Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning and knock temperatures way down. Details surrounding the exact timing of the frontal passage and any potential severe weather associated with it are currently nebulous, so check back early next week for an update! Regardless of the exact outcome, high temperatures may struggle to exceed the upper 40s to low 50s next Thursday and/or Friday, but they'll probably trend right back above average over Easter Weekend. The chaos continues.. -- Elliott

1:30 p.m. Tuesday, March 24, 2026:

This month's wild temperature rollercoaster ride continued over the last several days and still has several twists and turns left to go before pulling into the station. After temperatures soared into the upper 70s to mid 80s across the Lower Susquehanna Valley Sunday afternoon, they plummeted into the 40s later Monday morning following a potent cold frontal passage. Fortunately, severe thunderstorms lost much of their intensity before reaching south-central PA Sunday evening, but t-shirts and shorts were traded for jackets and winter coats on Monday. Mostly cloudy skies and north-northwesterly winds of 12-25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph made the outdoor air feel even colder on Monday, and a few flurries even flew across parts of the region Monday evening. A Canadian high pressure system has since settled into the mid-Atlantic States and caused winds to subside and skies to clear. Despite the sunshine, high temperatures will be around 5°F below normal this afternoon, or generally in the upper 40s to perhaps 50°F (see below). You may still need a light jacket or sweatshirt for outdoor activities, but it certainly feels much better than yesterday. 

The area of high pressure will shift into the western Atlantic during the middle of the week. On its backside, southerly winds of 10-20 mph will usher more seasonable air into northern MD and southeastern PA on Wednesday despite mostly cloudy skies. The day will start on a chilly note with lows in the low-to-mid 30s, but temperatures should peak in the mid-to-upper 50s Wednesday afternoon. The southerly flow will strengthen from Wednesday night into Thursday and direct even warmer air into the mid-Atlantic States. As a result, high temperatures will be around 15°F above average Thursday afternoon, or generally in the low-to-mid 70s, under partly-to-mostly cloudy skies (see below). I won't rule out a brief shower or two throughout the day, but most areas should remain dry.

The forecast from Thursday night into Friday will then be a virtual repeat of what just happened from Sunday night into Monday. A potent disturbance and its associated cold front will sweep southeastward through the Commonwealth later Thursday afternoon into Friday morning. Once again, the front will likely traverse northern MD and southeastern PA during the wee hours of the morning.. a time unfavorable for heavy convection and thunderstorms. Instead, showers with perhaps a few rumbles of thunder north/west of I-76/I-81 will move through the region between ~12-9 AM Friday morning. Numerical computer models vary significantly with respect to the distribution of rainfall amounts, but I can see an outcome similar to Sunday night with lower amounts south of the Mason-Dixon Line and the highest amounts north/west of I-81 (see below). Regardless, I'll be surprised if amounts exceed 0.50" across most if not all of the Lower Susquehanna Valley. Due to the moderate-to-severe drought in place across the region, the rain will be largely beneficial. Be alert for wet roadways and some lingering showers during the Friday morning commute, but I'm not expecting many weather-related travel issues in association with the event. 

Behind the cold front, the week will end on a brisk and much chillier note. North-northwesterly winds of 10-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph will usher colder air into the mid-Atlantic States. Much like Monday, temperatures may still be in the mid 50s to perhaps 60°F around sunrise but gradually fall into the 40s by Friday afternoon under mostly cloudy skies. I don't expect any additional rain Friday afternoon, but you'll certainly need to grab a heavy jacket or winter coat before heading out the door to work or school. A Canadian high pressure system will then settle into the Ohio Valley on Saturday, and the subsidence, or sinking motion, beneath it and to its east will promote clearing skies Friday evening. A 6-12 mph breeze may persist Friday night, but the stage will still be set for efficient, radiational cooling. As a result, temperatures may bottom out in the upper 20s to low 30s early Saturday morning, and that feat will likely be repeated early Sunday morning with the high pressure system directly over or just south of the Commonwealth. In stark contrast to this past weekend, the last weekend of March will be unseasonably cool with highs in the mid-to-upper 40s Saturday afternoon and low-to-mid 50s on Sunday. No rain or snow showers will accompany the chilly air mass, but you certainly won't be engaging in outdoor activities wearing only shorts and t-shirts this go around. Instead, winter coats will be the attire of choice for most on Saturday, and a light jacket or sweatshirt may still be a necessity Sunday afternoon.

That being said, this month's temperature rollercoaster ride will likely end on a steep incline early next week before finally coming to an end. The aforementioned high pressure system will shift into the western Atlantic early next week, and broad, south-to-southwesterly flow on its backside will usher unseasonably warm air right back into the region. In fact, high temperatures could easily reach the 60s again on Monday and perhaps soar into the 70s on the final day of the month. Any resistance from a potential "backdoor cold front" could throw a fly into the ointment, but this will be the same air mass currently responsible for the extreme heat wave across the southwestern United States. Thus, I lean toward a mainly unimpeded arrival of unseasonably warm air and March going out "like a lamb." Additionally, it's no April Fool's Joke to say that high temperatures could reach or exceed 80°F on the first day or two of the new month.. but that could also just be me being overly optimistic or ambitious. As a warm-weather lover, I say "bring it on!" and am welcoming spring with open arms. Asta la vista, Old Man Winter! -- Elliott