Special Weather Discussion

Latest Weather Discussion by Kyle Elliott

* a "blowtorch" through easter weekend, then cooler next week *

1:45 p.m. Tuesday, March 31, 2026:

What a March it has been in terms of wild temperature swings! From a high of freezing (32°F) on March 2nd to 83°F on March 10th, back to 39°F on St. Patrick's Day and then 80°F again on the 22nd and 26th, this month has had it all! The crazy temperature rollercoaster ride will continue through the first half of April, and it's certainly on a steep incline or nearing the top of another big hill today. Following an unseasonably cold start to the last weekend in March, south-to-southwesterly flow returned on Sunday and has since strengthened early this week. In fact, high temperatures reached the upper 60s to low 70s in most spots Monday afternoon, and they'll peak in the upper 70s to low 80s.. some 20-25°F above average.. this afternoon under partly sunny skies (see below). Not since 1998 have there been at least three 80-degree days in March at Millersville University, but that will end this afternoon. The March 31st record high minimum, or "warmest low," temperature of 59°F from last year was also broken this morning with a low of 61°F at the 'Ville, and last year's highest mean temp of 70°F will also be beaten. 

After a partly cloudy and incredibly warm Tuesday night with lows in the low-to-mid 60s, similar conditions are expected on Wednesday in advance of a cold front. West-to-southwesterly winds will still be present across the southern-tier counties of PA until the late-afternoon or early-evening hours, and the combination of partial sunshine and compressional warming ahead of the front will support high temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s once again. It's no April Fool's Joke to say tomorrow will feel more like June 1st than April 1st. Unfortunately, dry conditions won't prevail through the entire day. The cold front will be the focal point for shower and thunderstorm development across the Lower Susquehanna Valley during the mid-to-late afternoon hours. Storms will become more numerous and widespread during the afternoon/evening commute and gradually sag to the south/east through the mid-to-late evening hours. Despite the unseasonably warm conditions in place, the air mass ahead of the front won't be particularly moist. Additionally, winds in the low- and mid-levels of the atmosphere will be relatively light, so I don't anticipate much.. if any.. severe weather tomorrow. The most intense storms may produce brief downpours, lightning, and wind gusts up to 50 mph, but tree- and powerline damage should be sparse, at worst. That being said, motorists should stay alert for areas of reduced visibility and minor debris/blowing objects on roadways during the PM commute. Oh, and keep an umbrella handy if you have outdoors plans after 2-3 PM. 

Behind the front, winds will turn easterly Wednesday night and filter much cooler air from New England into eastern PA. The cool air will "dam up" against the eastern slopes of the Appalachians later Wednesday night through early Friday morning, and temperatures will remain nearly steady in the mid-to-upper 50s under cloudy skies on Thursday. I don't expect any additional precipitation with the exception of some spotty mist/drizzle, but it's going to feel MUCH chillier outside in comparison to today and tomorrow. However, the cool air mass will exit almost as quickly as it entered. The aforementioned cold front will ultimately lift back northeastward as a warm front later Thursday night through Friday morning. As a result, winds should turn south-to-southwesterly again by late Friday morning, and the low clouds will be scoured out by the southwesterly flow. After the clouds break, temperatures will be "off to the races" again Friday afternoon and end up in the mid 70s to perhaps low 80s south of the Turnpike and west of I-83.

Easter Weekend will then begin on a potentially record-warm start with highs in the low-to-mid 80s on Saturday under partly-to-mostly sunny skies. I won't rule out an isolated shower later Friday into Saturday morning, but most areas should remain dry from Thursday morning through at least Saturday night. The 105-year-old April 4th record high temperature of 83°F from 1921 at Millersville will likely be tied or broken Saturday afternoon. April 4th is also the opening day of trout season in Pennsylvania, and thousands of anglers will be flocking to the state's waterways for the "opening bell" at 8 AM. Due to the multi-day stretch of unseasonable warmth leading up to opening day, water temperatures will be significantly higher than normal and generally in the 50s and 60s. In smaller streams and creeks, water clarity should be good given 48-60 hours of dry weather prior to 8 AM Saturday. However, cloudy or muddy water may be more common in larger creeks and rivers, especially those in northern/western parts of the state hit hardest by heavier rain and thunderstorms over the next 36 hours. Given the unusually warm water, trout should be very active and hit anything from live bait to spinners, minnows and dry/wet flies. Essentially, the world will be an angler's oyster on Saturday, and water temperatures will be high enough for some of you.. including myself.. to "wet wade" without protective gear. 

Looking ahead into Easter Sunday and early next week, a potent cold front is expected to traverse the Commonwealth from west-to-east later Sunday into Sunday night. It will be accompanied by another round of showers and embedded thunderstorms on Easter Sunday, so make sure you have an umbrella and rain gear handy for both morning and evening church services. Much like tonight, low temperatures Saturday night will probably be in the low-to-mid 60s, but high temperatures shouldn't exceed the low-to-mid 70s on Sunday due to the arrival of wet weather by the late-morning or early-afternoon hours. Of course, details with respect to the front's timing can and likely will change over the next few days, so check back Friday for an update! Regardless of the exact outcome and distribution of rainfall amounts, a much cooler air mass will settle into the mid-Atlantic States next week. A large-scale pattern reconfiguration.. featuring a northward bulge in the Jet Stream over western North America and trough over eastern North America.. will support a return of seasonably cool conditions for most of next week. Despite mostly sunny skies, high temperatures will likely be around 5°F below normal on Monday, near-average on Tuesday and then back below normal on Wednesday and/or Thursday. A clipper type system may bring rain showers to the Lower Susquehanna Valley during the middle of the week, and a brief, reinforcing shot of chilly air will likely follow in its wake. I'll worry about those details on Friday and re-evaluate things after Easter Sunday, but you'll certainly be trading in the shorts and t-shirts for long pants, jackets and sweatshirts next week. 'Tis the norm in April across this part of the nation.. -- Elliott