Special Weather Discussion

Latest Weather Discussion by Kyle Elliott

* a cloudy, damp, and dreary week *

10:30 a.m. Tuesday, November 18, 2025:

As anticipated, the rainfall component of Sunday night's cold frontal passage was negligible, at best, across northern MD and southeastern PA. Nearly all areas received less than 0.10" of rain, and many received no measurable precipitation at all (see below). However, the howling, northwesterly winds behind the front certainly lived up to and even exceeded expectations. Peak gusts on Sunday reached 51 mph at York Airport, 53 mph at Lancaster Airport and 55 mph at Harrisburg International Airport, and gusts were still in the 40-50 mph range on Monday. The strong winds caused downed tree limbs and power lines across the region, as well as isolated power outages and blowing debris on roadways.

Fortunately, a bubble of high pressure settled into the central Appalachians last night and caused winds to finally subside. The high pressure will remain in control of our weather today, but clouds will increase this afternoon in advance of a fast-moving disturbance. Due to the clouds, high temperatures will be around 5-10°F below average and generally in the mid-to-upper 40s. The disturbance will zip eastward through the mid-Atlantic States tonight and bring periods of light rain and drizzle to the Lower Susquehanna Valley between ~7 PM this evening and 7 AM Wednesday. Rain should exit southeastern PA by 8 AM Wednesday, so wet roadways during the morning commute will be the only real weather-related concern from the system. Most areas will receive 0.25-0.50" (or less) of rain from the system (see below). Overall, the rain will be highly beneficial due to the abnormally dry and moderate drought conditions in place across the region. 

Behind the disturbance, cloudy, damp and cool conditions will stick around through Thursday. An area of high pressure will shift from the Great Lakes region into northern New England from Wednesday into Thursday. Moist, easterly flow off the Atlantic to its south and west will be the culprit for the dreary weather during the middle of the week. There won't be much of a difference between high- and low temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday due to the persistent cloud cover. Overall, highs will remain around 5-10°F below average (mid-to-upper 40s) with lows around 5-10°F above average (upper 30s to low 40s). I won't rule out some patchy drizzle across the region from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday night, but most of that time period should be dry. A weak cold front will then zip through southeastern Canada and New England from Thursday night into Friday and finally disrupt the easterly flow to its south across the mid-Atlantic States. As a result, winds should turn southwesterly by Friday morning and gradually scour out the low clouds. There will still be a good deal of cloud cover around on Friday, but enough sunshine should peek through to boost high temperatures back into the mid-to-upper 50s during the afternoon hours. Overall, it will be a relatively nice end to the week by late-November standards, and you may even be able to shed jackets and sweatshirts for several hours Friday afternoon. From Friday night into Saturday, another weak disturbance will move from the Lower Ohio Valley into the southern mid-Atlantic States and take a similar track to tonight's system. Once again, light rain or a few showers may graze the southern-tier counties of PA later Friday night into Saturday morning, but I do not expect rainfall amounts to be as high as tonight. In fact, rain may ultimately stay south of the Mason-Dixon Line depending on the exact track of the system. Time will tell!

Another high pressure system will then settle into southern New England or the Commonwealth later Saturday into Sunday and promote light winds, more sunshine and relatively pleasant conditions for most of the weekend. Any morning clouds will likely push south/east of the region Saturday afternoon, and skies should then stay mainly clear through at least Sunday night. At this point, I expect high temperatures to be in the comfortable low-to-mid 50s both Saturday and Sunday afternoons with overnight lows in the chilly low-to-mid 30s. You'll definitely need to grab a winter coat before heading out the door to Sunday morning church services, but a light jacket or sweatshirt will suffice during the afternoon hours. Uncertainty in the forecast increases early next week, but odds favor a continuation of dry, tranquil and seasonable conditions through at least Tuesday. One thing's for certain: I don't see any notable "cold blasts" or opportunities for early-season snow in the next 10 days, and the overall pattern across the Eastern States will be rather quiet in the days leading up to Thanksgiving. That's exactly what the doctor ordered on some of the busiest travel days of the year! -- Elliott