Special Weather Discussion

Latest Weather Discussion by Kyle Elliott

* cloudy, damp and dreary through friday.. but with beneficial rain *

12:45 p.m. Wednesday, February 18, 2026:

The third week of February kicked off on a cloudy and dreary note across the Lower Susquehanna Valley, but light, southwesterly flow ushered milder air into the region Tuesday afternoon and caused skies to partially clear. High temperatures reached the mid-to-upper 40s across most of southeastern PA but soared into the mid-to-upper 50s west of the South Mountain Range. However, low-level, easterly flow off the Atlantic returned Tuesday night and caused low clouds to redevelop in areas east of the Appalachians. This easterly flow off the Atlantic will persist over the next few days and keep high/low temperatures stuck in the 40s/30s, respectively, through Friday. Essentially, a "backdoor" cold front, or one that moves from the northeast-to-southwest out of New England instead of the traditional northwest-to-southeast direction, will stay "dammed up" against the eastern slopes of the Appalachians through week's end. To the south and west of the front, southerly winds and partial sunshine will boost high temperatures into the 60s and 70s across much of the Ohio Valley. However, low clouds and easterly flow off the chilly waters of the Atlantic will keep dreary and raw conditions locked in place east of the Appalachians (see below). Meteorologists refer to this as a "cold air damming" setup, and these events are notorious for being very stubborn to break. 

Despite this week's bleak weather, there is some "good news" to offer in terms of precipitation. Last week's U.S. Drought Monitor Update showed moderate-to-severe drought conditions in place across the southeastern half of PA, as well as the majority of Maryland and New Jersey. Fortunately, a storm system tracking from the Midwest into the Great Lakes region late this week will bring beneficial rain to the region and provide a much-needed break from the dry conditions. Until Sunday, a measly 0.01" of Liquid Equivalent Precipitation (LEP) had been recorded at Millersville University between January 26-February 14. Typically, over 1.75" of LEP falls during that ~3-week period. Anyhow, a clipper-type disturbance will zip from the eastern Great Lakes region through southern New England over the next 12-18 hours prior to the more substantial system late this week. Isolated showers may dot northern MD and southeastern PA between 1-8 PM, but most of the activity will remain along and north of I-80. Rainfall amounts should not exceed 0.05" south/east of I-76/81 (see below).

After a lull in the wet weather from tonight through tomorrow morning, light-to-moderate rain will then overspread the region from southwest-to-northeast between ~2-8 PM Thursday, fall steadily to perhaps heavily at times Thursday night into Friday morning, and then taper off around midday. Most areas will pick up 0.50-1.00" of rain with locally higher amounts up to 1.25" through Friday (see below). The rain is certainly much-needed and will be a good thing, but motorists should be alert for standing water on roadways during the Friday morning commute. The combination of melting snow/ice and rain may also cause some flooding of low-lying and poor-drainage areas, but stream/river flooding won't be a concern. Grab an umbrella and rain gear before heading out the door to work or school, and expect delays/slowdowns on the roads. Drive within the speed limit and increase following distance in areas of reduced visibility and/or steadier rain.

The center of the storm system will pass to our north/east later Friday into Friday night, and the counterclockwise flow around it will finally disrupt the easterly flow off the Atlantic. As a result, winds will turn westerly later Friday night, and that westerly flow should finally scour out the low clouds. Behind the system, the weekend will actually kick off on a partly sunny and relatively pleasant note with highs in the mid 40s to perhaps 50°F Saturday afternoon. Much like Valentine's Day, the weather will be ideal for outdoor activities with just a light jacket or sweatshirt on. I'll take it!

Looking ahead into the second half of the weekend, all eyes are on the "potential" for a significant winter storm somewhere along the Eastern Seaboard. However, numerical computer models are all over the place with respect to the timing, track and intensity of the system. Essentially all scenarios.. from a major snowstorm to a "mix event" to a weak/suppressed/out-to-sea system.. are currently on the table. Unlike this past weekend, the upcoming system certainly has much bigger potential and should not be written off. However, you cannot shovel potential, and a seasoned professional meteorologist knows better than to provide specific details about a system or commit to a single solution more than 3 days in advance. What I will say is this: there are several moving pieces involved with the Sunday/Monday setup that would have to come together in the right place.. and at the perfect time.. for a major snow event across southeastern PA and the Lower Susquehanna Valley. The odds of that happening are much less than 50%, so snow-lovers should not get their hopes up just yet. Check back on Friday for a more detailed update! -- Elliott