Special Weather Discussion

Latest Weather Discussion by Kyle Elliott

* all-out blizzard to wallop NJ to new england.. but what about pa? *

7:00 p.m. Saturday, February 21, 2026:

Following a partly-to-mostly sunny and pleasantly mild Saturday with highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s, you might find it hard to believe that another snowstorm will impact northern MD and southeastern PA from tomorrow into Monday. Well, that's exactly what's going to happen, but the distribution of snowfall across the region is still very uncertain and subject to change. The track, intensity, and ultimate evolution of the impending storm are highly sensitive to very small changes in the upper-levels of the atmosphere. A subtle, 25-50-mile shift in the system's track could mean the difference between a few inches of snow and a major, double-digit snowstorm. The main "driver," or piece of energy, responsible for the impending Nor'easter is currently over the Plains and originated from the northern branch of the Jet Stream. It will ultimately "phase," or join forces, with a piece of energy within the Jet Stream's southern branch somewhere along or just off the mid-Atlantic coastline later Sunday into Sunday night. The exact timing and location of this "phase" will be paramount in determining the ultimate distribution of snowfall amounts across PA, MD, NJ, NY, and DE. A faster "phase" would result in a track closer to the coast and more rapid intensification of the surface low pressure system. In this scenario, a crippling, double-digit snowfall could paralyze all of eastern PA and even extend westward across most of the Lower Susquehanna Valley. However, a slower "phase" would result in a track farther offshore and slower intensification of the surface low. In this case, double-digit totals could be confined to areas within 50 miles of the coast.

Despite being within 24-36 hours of the storm, there are still large differences between the various numerical weather prediction models. As a professional meteorologist, it's my job to choose the most viable outcome and separate fact from fiction. A situation as challenging as this one requires a look into the past for hints about what might unfold over the next 48 hours. Past storms.. or "analogs".. on December 30, 2000; December 26-27, 2010; January 26-28, 2015; and January 28-29, 2022, all suggest a bona fide blizzard from NJ to southeastern New England but just a "light-to-moderate" snow event across south-central PA. Pattern recognition.. i.e. one of a seasoned forecaster's greatest tools.. can also be used to assess the situation. When the main "driver" for a system comes out of the Jet Stream's northern branch, the aforementioned "phase" often takes a few hours longer than modeled, ultimately leading to a storm track slightly farther east and disappointment for snow lovers west of Philadelphia. All of the analogs mentioned above ended up playing out like this. In fact, the December 30, 2000, storm was one of the most notorious forecast "busts" in recent history. Just 24 hours before the storm, Heavy Snow Warnings were in effect for 8-14" of snow from Washington, D.C., to Philadelphia. Fast forward a day later, and not a single flake fell in either Washington or Baltimore (see below). In 2015, New York City was expected to get 2 feet of snow just 1-2 days before the storm, but a last-second jog to the east in the system's track resulted in just several inches of accumulation. As such, I am very skeptical of a major snowstorm west of Philadelphia over the next 48 hours and have identified a storm track farther offshore as the most probably outcome. Although "controversial," I am willing to stand by my forecast and let the chips fall where they may. As such, my "Storm Outlook Map" shows much lower totals than many other outlets/forecasters for most of eastern PA (see below).

I currently expect 3-6" of accumulation across northern MD and the Lower Susquehanna Valley with higher totals confined to far eastern PA. There will likely be a tight gradient between 6-8" and 1-2 feet of snow across far eastern PA and western NJ. In fact, just 20-25 miles could separate 6" of snow from 20" or more. Storms of this nature are notorious for having a sharp cutoff along their western edge. The reason for this is due to strong, compensating "subsidence," or sinking motion, west of the system's "deformation band." The deformation band usually sets up about 150 miles northwest of the storm's center. Within the deformation band, strong, low-level convergence and enhanced, rising motion contribute to rapid snow growth in the mid-levels of the atmosphere and subsequent snowfall rates of 1" to as much as 4" per hour. However, air cannot rise everywhere, and compensating subsidence zones typically set up on either side of the deformation band. Within these zones, the opposite effect occurs. Strong, sinking motion leads to poor snow growth, diminished snowfall rates (0.5" per hour or less), and lower snowfall totals than expected (see below). In this case, the subsidence zone may set up right over northern MD and south-central PA.. yet another reason I'm leery of anything more than a "moderate" event. With that being said, this is a low-confidence forecast and one of the most challenging in my entire career to this point. If I'm wrong and the storm system ends up tracking 50 or more miles farther west, then that deformation band would likely set up along or just west of the I-95 corridor and bury the eastern half of the Lower Susquehanna Valley with a foot or more of snow. What a wild ride this is going to be.. filled with chaos and huge boom/bust potential. Oof!

As for the impacts and timing, precipitation will overspread northern MD, southeastern PA and the Lower Susquehanna Valley from west-to-east between ~5-9 AM Sunday morning. Due to above-freezing surface temperatures and poor precipitation rates, the event may actually start as rain or a mix of rain/snow for several hours and then gradually change over to all snow Sunday afternoon. With high temperatures in the mid-to-upper 30s, I don't anticipate any slush or snow on roadways through 4-5 PM, so there won't be any concerns for travel to-and-from Sunday morning church services (see below). However, temperatures will drop below 32°F after sunset, and snowfall rates may reach 0.50" per hour at times Sunday night in south-central PA and 1-2" per hour near the PA/NJ border. Thus, roadways will turn snow-packed and slippery from Sunday night through Monday morning. The snow will diminish in intensity Monday morning and ultimately exit southeastern PA around or shortly after midday.

As the system "bombs out" off the coast, northerly winds will increase Sunday evening and reach speeds of 15-30 mph overnight. Behind the system, they'll turn northwesterly and continue to intensify on Monday, ultimately gusting up to 40-45 mph at times during the late-morning and afternoon hours. Fortunately, there should be at least a few breaks in the clouds Monday afternoon, allowing high temperatures to reach the mid-to-upper 30s. As a result, snow should at least partially melt off roadways, and the higher temperatures will assist in post-storm snow removal and cleanup efforts (see below). Despite the strong winds, I don't anticipate much blowing/drifting snow in northern MD or the Lower Susquehanna Valley due to poor snowfall ratios (6-8:1), the heavy/wet nature of the snow, and partial melt-off Monday afternoon. Closer to the coast from parts of Delaware into New Jersey, Long Island/NYC, and southeastern New England, I expect much higher totals, stronger winds, and extreme impacts. Residents in those areas will deal with blizzard/whiteout conditions Sunday night into Monday afternoon with wind gusts up to 50 mph, leading to impassable roadways and widespread power outages. However, any power outages should be of the "isolated" variety across northern MD and south-central PA, and roadway conditions will likely improve significantly by Monday afternoon. If you must travel Sunday evening through Monday morning, exercise extreme caution in the hazardous conditions and on the slippery roadways. Most schools and businesses will be closed or have a delayed opening on Monday. 

An area of high pressure will then settle into the southeastern United States from Monday night into Tuesday and cause winds to gradually subside. However, an unseasonably cold air mass will briefly pay a visit to the Northeast during that time. As a result, low temperatures will bottom out in the high teens to low 20s early Tuesday morning with minimum wind chills in the single digits. Despite partial sunshine, high temperatures Tuesday afternoon will only recover into the upper 20s to low 30s.. some 15°F below average by late-February standards. Needless to say, Old Man Winter isn't finished just yet, and we're going to face his fury yet again over the next few days before milder conditions return during the middle of the week. Hang in there.. and stay safe! -- Elliott